As the series now shifts to Philadelphia, the Flyers are going to have the advantage of having the last line change for Games 3 and 4. Matchups are an intricate part of playoff hockey, and considering how head coach Rick Tocchet has operated thus far, a line change could be in order.
Noah Cates was always going to be an X-factor for the Flyers because of his solid two-way play and it was heavily expected that he was going to draw the assignment of either Sidney Crosby or Evgeni Malkin.
However through the first two games, his line – with Denver Barkey and Matvei Michkov – has not been up to the task in their own zone and have been caught flat footed a few times, including Malkin’s game-tying goal in Game 1 and Samuel Girard’s scoring chance in Game 2.
By the end of last night’s game, the ice time wavered quite a bit with Barkey seeing 8:53, Michkov at 9:32, and Cates at 17:43. With the Flyers protecting a lead, Tocchet went with his more trusted defensive forwards, which also meant that players like Trevor Zegras (13:03) saw less time on ice.
Tyson Foerster played a game-high 20:23 TOI amongst forwards, followed by Cates, Christian Dvorak (17:09), Sean Couturier (16:30), and Owen Tippett (15:57). Luke Glendening (12:56) and Garnet Hathaway (11:15) also saw an increase in ice-time, coming just short of Zegras’ 13:03.
A part of that could be attributed to the fact that they had to kill 5 penalties, leaving certain players pinned to the bench for 2+ minutes at a time, but it also showed that Tocchet wasn’t playing around when it came to protecting his lead.
This indicates a few things, starting with the most obvious fact that the Flyers possess a lot of like-minded, two-way forwards who can be trusted on and off the puck. However, if you go a bit deeper, it could be a sign that they should look to shuffle their lineup with one small tweak.
If the Flyers want to avoid defensive zone meltdowns and miscues, especially against either Crosby or Malkin, they should look to swap Michkov with Foerster, at the very least.
You don’t scratch him, like Colby Cohen from Daily Faceoff suggested, but it allows Michkov to play alongside Zegras and Tippett in a more offensive minded role, whereas Foerster can reunite with Cates and provide the Flyers with a second shutdown line.
Michkov paced the Flyers in total scoring after the Olympics and his creativity is integral to their offensive machine, while also being a focus on their power play. It’s just about finding the right situations for him to thrive in during his first postseason run in North America.
Moreover, since the Flyers have the last line change as the home team, they can look to exploit the matchups as best they can. By having Michkov playing with Zegras and Tippett, it allows them to spread the ice-time a lot more evenly, rather than having players sitting for large portions of the game, and it gives them a line they can trust in the offensive zone.
Any time Crosby steps on the ice, Tocchet could then look to either stick Cates-Foerster onto him or Couturier-Glendening, and vice versa with Malkin’s line. Obviously it’s not going to be foolproof, but it gives you the best opportunity to shut down their top two lines even more, especially since we know they’re going to be a lot more aggressive with their season hanging in the balance.
It’s a small sample size but during the regular season, Michkov-Zegras-Tippett skated 30 even strength minutes across 25 games to the tune of an 80.8 xGoals %, which was the highest amongst all trios that played 30+ minutes together. Further indicating that they work well together and can give the Flyers exactly what they need out of their limited minutes.
What also helps Tocchet moving forward is that he has the Dvorak line in his quiver should he ever need to use them against Crosby or Malkin. However, we’ve already seen that he wants to stick certain players against Crosby and Malkin, and it seems like having both Michkov and Barkey out there at the same time isn’t going to be sustainable – at least in this series.
Foerster is a Swiss Army knife and we’ve seen his two game evolve over the years. His analytical numbers have either been on par or exceeded the likes of Cates and Couturier, and we’ve already seen what he can do playing alongside Cates.
To avoid the long shifts hemmed in their own zone, defensive miscues, and missed assignments, it’s a small tweak that Tocchet and company can make without overhauling the lineup.
Michkov won’t be a fish out of water alongside the skill of Zegras and the speed of Tippett. In fact, it could give them an edge for offensive zone draws and having one line specifically trained to score and create offense.
Perhaps the Flyers want to operate under the adage of “if it ain’t broke, don’t fix it” and run back the same lines that earned them a 2-0 series lead. However, a small tweak like this could go a long way, considering how the Penguins played in the final two periods of last night’s game, their expected increase in aggression and offensive play with their series on the line, and how the Flyers tweaked their lineup in the third period.
If it doesn’t work, you can always switch things to factory settings, but it seems like a slightly better plan than having a few of your younger players stuck to the bench for long stretches, while also preserving the stamina and health of your veteran players for crunch time.
