Entering the offseason, the Philadelphia Flyers dished out qualifying offers to RFAs in Morgan Frost, Olle Lycksell, Noah Cates, Cam York, and Ronnie Attard. The latter 4 have already signed their deals with Frost being the lone remaining RFA without a contract to date.
Egor Zamula was actually the first one to sign a new contract as he was offered a one-year deal worth $775,000 on the 2nd of May. Since he was signed relatively early, the Flyers didn’t have to dish out a qualifying offer. Attard was the first to sign of the aforementioned quintet with a two-year deal being finalized on the 5th of July. Cates and York followed suit on the 10th of July and then Lycksell reached a two-year deal 3 days later.
As we draw nearer to August, Frost is still without a contract, but is that something to worry about? At this rate, it’s not about whether or not Frost signs a deal, the hold up is more than likely dealing with term and subsequently the appropriate amount of AAV.
Frost is coming off a career-season that saw him not only reach the 40-point plateau for the first time in his young career but he also finally played a full season. Dealing with a glut of injuries and then consecutive seasons that were either postponed or shortened due to COVID, Frost entered a very pivotal 2022-23 season with only 77 games under his belt in parts of 3 seasons.
He signed a prove-it deal in the summer of 2022 for only $800,000, which was $10,000 less than what Isaac Ratcliffe was given. Similarly to what Cam York endured at the beginning of the 22-23 season, Frost was sent down to the AHL to marinate after essentially only playing 2 games in 2 calendar years. His final game of the 2019-20 season came on the 10th of February, he didn’t suit up for any of the bubble games, and then made 2 appearances in 2020-21 but suffered a season-ending injury in the 4th game of the season.
He made quick work in both of his stints with the Lehigh Valley Phantoms, the first one coming in 2019-20. He scored 13 goals and 29 points in just 41 games in his first professional season and then scored 6 goals and 19 points in 24 games to start the 2021-22 season.
As was the case for most of the Flyers during that 21-22 season, Frost struggled mightily at the beginning. He scored 2 goals and 8 points in his first 38 games and then matched that total in the final 17 games of the season. Although the numbers weren’t breathtaking, he was playing a lot better, had a lot more confidence in nearly every facet of his game, and was finally seeing his name on the scoresheet.
He formed a nice duo with newly-acquired and fellow 2017 first round pick, Owen Tippett. They both required new contracts heading into the 2022-23 season with Tippett getting a 2-year deal ironed out and Frost only getting the one-year deal at almost half the salary.
He started off the year with 2 goals during the season opener and 3 points in his first 3 games. He then went the next 24 games with just 1 goal and 3 points and only averaging 14:29 TOI. He broke out in a very big way with a goal and 3 assists against the Arizona Coyotes, which was a catalyst for the rest of his season as he finished the final 54 games with 16 goals and 40 points, while averaging 17:17 TOI. He ended up pacing the club in points in his final 45 games with 32 to his name.
The prove-it deal worked to some degree as he was finally able to flex his muscles and show the organization, his teammates, and even himself, that he was more than capable of producing; he just needed the time and patience from his coaching staff.
John Tortorella and company afforded a lot of their younger players the time and patience they needed to figure things out this past season and that extends to the likes of Owen Tippett, Cam York, and Joel Farabee as well. As long as you showed him you were competing and giving 100% effort, you weren’t going to benched for not producing on the boxscore.
As the other RFAs have signed on the dotted line, we anxiously wait on Frost to ink his new deal and the long wait might be boiling down to term. Frost has only signed 2 contracts in his career, with the first one being his 3-year ELC and the most recent one coming last summer. After being drafted in the first round of the 2017 NHL Entry Draft, time and patience was running low on the now-24-year-old and while he ended the season on a very high note, would signing him to a long term deal be fruitful or jumping the gun?
At the NHL level, he scored 2 goals and 7 points in 20 games during the 2019-20 season, he went pointless in 2 games in 2020-21, scored 5 goals and 16 points in 55 games in 2021-22, and then finished his career-year with 19 goals, 27 assists, and 46 points in 81 games.
At the AHL level, he scored 19 goals and 48 points in 65 games across 2 seasons and he scored 106 goals and 310 points in 257 games across 4 seasons with 79 of those goals and 221 of those points coming in his final 2 years.
This season alone with the Flyers, he scored 18 goals at even-strength, 3 of them being of the game-winning variety, averaged 16:21 TOI (2:26 ATOI more than his previous high), and his takeaway to giveaway ratio was 37:26. In fact, he only accumulated 5 power play points, giving him 41 points at even-strength.
Handing him another bridge deal could be the route that interests Daniel Brière and company because it seems like that’s what most players are doing right now with an eye towards the exponential growth of the salary cap. It has been projected that the cap will rise to $87.5 million-$88 million ahead of the 2024-25 season and then around $92 million ahead of the 2025-26 season.
The cap has been stagnant and flat since COVID and that has really hampered salaries across the sport. Signing a 2-year deal would follow suit with Noah Cates, Cam York, and Ronnie Attard, and it would also be the year that prospects like Tyson Foester, Elliot Desnoyers, and Helge Grans require new contracts, and veterans like Travis Konecny and Cam Atkinson would be coming off the books – on the off-chance they aren’t moved by then.
Frost might still require a bridge deal to truly prove himself, but he has shown flashes of his top-6 capabilities and that might be enough to entice the Flyers to roll the dice on his growth and development. If he were to sign a 2-year deal for instance, the cap hit would probably hover around what Noah Cates received – in and around $2.5 million-$3 million per season. If he were to sign a 4-5 year deal then the cap hit would most likely rise to around $4 million.
If he can improve on his 2022-23 season and if he continues to make strides in his development then it would look like a steal of a deal were he to sign on a longer-termed contract. The Flyers would have the flexibility of having him out there for rebuilding years and – hopefully by 2026 – contending years at a relatively low cap hit. On the other hand, if injuries play a part or he sort of hits a stagnant wall – as evidenced by his 24-game stretch of just 1 goal and 3 points – then it would look like a terrible gamble.
There are several pros and cons to either option but at the very least a deal will be ironed out. On the player’s side of the argument, you’re always looking for guarantees and locks and with the NHL offering fully-guaranteed contracts, the added security of a long-term deal entices the player more often than not. On the business side of things, you don’t want to be handing out hefty contracts on the basis of projections and potential because that has severely hampered the Flyers over the last decade.
According to Alexander Appleyard, the Flyers have bought out the most players since 2012, have retained salary on the most trades since 2013, and have retained the 2nd-most cap in trades since that time as well:
Luckily, for the first time in what feels like eons, the Flyers don’t have to worry about the salary cap or the mismanagement of cap. They aren’t handing out long-term deals, they aren’t haphazardly going after players with terms, and they are looking more at subtracting than making additions. They also won’t be buying out Frost in the near future or retaining salary in a trade, but it’s a barometer of how badly the cap has been handled over the last little while.
With Ivan Provorov being traded with no salary retention, Kevin Hayes shipped out to St. Louis at 50% retention, and Tony DeAngelo being bought out, mixed in what all the depth signings and acquisitions from the Provorov deal, the Flyers have $2.967 million in open cap – a number that would rise to $9.217 million once Ryan Ellis is placed on LTIR.
As of right now, Owen Tippett, Ryan Poehling, Wade Allison, Egor Zamula, and Carter Hart are expiring RFA contracts at the end of the 2023-24 season with Tanner Laczynski, Sean Waker, Marc Staal, Nick Seeler, and Felix Sandström being expiring UFA contracts. Bobby Brink, Mason Millman, and Samuel Ersson are also expiring RFA contracts. CapFriendly has them projected at $23.323 million in cap space next summer with an $87.5 million projection. This on top of the fact that they have 2 first, second, and sixth round picks, a third, a fourth, a fifth, and a seventh rounder; pretty good start to a rebuild.
All of this is just displaying that the Flyers can go either which way with Frost and not have to worry about the repercussions of the salary cap for once. However, you also want to make the right business decision, which is exactly why it’s taking so long. The idea of extending a top-6 capable centre for 4-5 years is tantalizing, but has he shown enough to warrant that type of contract?
The Flyers have made long term gambles over the years that have paid off with Sean Couturier being the prime example. After his ELC expired, he signed a 2-year deal worth $3.5 million in the summer of 2013 and then signed a 6-year deal worth $26 million in the summer of 2015.
Couturier signed the deal with one year remaining on his previous 2-year contract and with only 45 goals and 118 points in 287 games to his name. Many saw that as a terrible deal at the time but when you looked at the complete package, the Flyers were banking on potential – and were subsequently correct on that gamble.
Travis Sanheim is an example of bridge deals that then turned into a long-term contract. Sanheim signed a 2-year deal worth $6.5 million in the summer of 2019 after his ELC had expired and then signed another 2-year deal worth $9.35 million in the summer of 2021. Jumping the gun ever so slightly, Chuck Fletcher offered Sanheim an 8-year contract worth $50 million just before the season opener in 2022.
For his first deal post-ELC, Sanheim came off a career-high 35 points, for his second deal he came off a season with just 15 points, and then before his mammoth deal he had won the Barry Ashbee Trophy as the team’s best defenseman – but struggled to replicate that success in 2022-23. He will be entering year 1 of his new deal in 2023-24.
If you go the Sanheim route, you can only offer and agree upon so many bridge deals before you have to ultimately invest into a long-term deal. His 2 bridge deals coincided with a Flyers team attempting to re-tool and contend and culminated into a very large contract that they attempted to move ahead of the draft with a rebuild on the horizon. It made sense at the time because the Flyers needed all the available cap space on hand and a long-term deal would’ve eaten up into that cap space.
If you go the Couturier route, then you’re banking on exponential growth to a point where the player becomes a steal in the final 2-3 seasons of the deal. Couturier scored 110 goals and 269 points in his final 305 games of his 6-year contract. He scored 104 goals and 252 points in 276 games before Fletcher dished out the 8-year max deal. Injuries have come to the forefront ever since but the original long-term deal that he signed with Hextall proved to be one of the better bargains in the NHL at the time.
Frost will be afforded every chance to perform and succeed with the Flyers in the coming years as a staple in the top-6, ample of power play reps, overtime sessions, and in the shootout. He will also be relied upon for primary scoring now – not secondary or tertiary anymore.
In other words, we need Morgan Frost to start the 2023-24 season the way ended the 2022-23 season; with that confidence, gusto, and gumption. If that’s what the Flyers are banking on, then a long-term deal is on the horizon. If there’s even a slight bit of hesitancy, a short-term bridge deal will be in the cards. A prove-it deal would probably ignite a fire in his belly to outperform the expectations and cash in once again in a few seasons, but a long-term deal would give him the confidence to continue to perform for a team that believes in his abilities.
However the dice is rolled, the Flyers can’t mess this situation up unless they offer an insurmountable AAV that doesn’t compute – which is more than likely not going to happen with Fletcher out of the equation. Briere and Frost’s camp still have a lot of work to iron out but they should have several comparable contracts to mix and match with.
If they’re going short-term than look no further than Noah Cates’ deal (2×2.625) but if they’re going long-term than look no further than Couturier’s deal (6×4.33).
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