With Claude Giroux being the showstopper trade piece for the Philadelphia Flyers with the NHL trade deadline approaching, one name that can be forgotten but has been gaining steam is Rasmus Ristolainen. There are some discrepancies in terms of whether or not the Flyers will trade Giroux because of his no movement clause, but there might be even more in relation to Ristolainen. General manager Chuck Fletcher wants to keep him, and Ristolainen has some interest in staying, but he is also intrigued by the open market.
Acquired on draft day from the Buffalo Sabres for a first round pick in 2021, a second round pick in 2022, and Robert Hagg, Ristolainen became a polarizing figure due to his ghastly analytical numbers but also because of his price of acquisition. Fletcher made it quite clear before the draft that he would only trade his first round pick for a top-end talent, one with more term than Ristolainen’s soon-to-be expiring contract in the summer of 2022.
What most likely happened and what Fletcher has alluded to on several occasions is that the price kept rising due to the bidding war he was involved in and at some point, without trying to lose the opportunity to grab the defenseman he’s had his eyes on for a few years, he used his first round pick as bait. It’s not entirely known who the other teams involved were but the Flyers first round pick superseded theirs and Fletcher got his “man”.
The hulking, physical, gritty, net-front presence that is Ristolainen is exactly what the Flyers and their fans have been clamouring for for years. Being stuck in Buffalo didn’t help his cause or his numbers but it clearly didn’t affect his value. There’s always a premium for right-hand shot defensemen and with the Flyers floundering in the standings, it would only make sense to trade to soon-to-be free agent defenseman to a contending team; maybe even recoup the draft picks you gave up.
Market value put a dent in the Flyers future armoury because the price of acquisition was obviously far steeper than it should’ve been, however the past is the past and you can’t do anything about it. What can be done is trying to re-coup lost assets in a lost season. The only issue is that the Flyers want to remain aggressive and forego a rebuild and Fletcher doesn’t want to lose the defenseman after one failed year.
The idea was to use him in the top 4, being sheltered by the top pair of Ryan Ellis and Ivan Provorov. Playing top pair minutes and situations in Buffalo made his numbers drop and the analytical community had a field day in relation to the trade and the price tag that Ristolainen was acquired for. However, the idea of sheltering his minutes and then using him in situations he would exceed in was thrown out the window after the mysterious fall of Ellis.
The trickle down effect from top pair to third pair was felt and Ristolainen was thrown right back into the fire and playing in top pair minutes and situations, similar to his Buffalo days. Justin Braun went from being on the third pair with Keith Yandle to top pair minutes with Ivan Provorov. The Travis Sanheim and Ristolainen second pair were tasked for heavier minutes and it was like he never left Buffalo with how bad the Flyers’ defense and overall game dropped.
Now all things considered, Ristolainen has played pretty well. The Flyers haven’t enjoyed much success, especially after their “huge” off-season and with injuries all throughout the lineup, they needed certain players like Ristolainen to step up. He’s done exactly what was expected of him, he has played his physical game on a near nightly basis, he’s to be feared when he’s on the ice, and if things get testy or pesky he is in the mix as expected.
His offensive numbers have taken a hit, mostly because he isn’t playing on the power play. The Flyers have used him sparingly but generally go with one defenseman on the top unit and sometimes they’ll go with 2 on the second unit. Keith Yandle, Ivan Provorov, Travis Sanheim, and Ryan Ellis (when in the lineup) have gotten more opportunities. There were a few years in Buffalo where he accumulated 20+ points on the man advantage, which explains his knack for cracking the 40 point mark as a defenseman. Currently he has 2 goals and 9 assists, all even strength.
So what do the Flyers do with Ristolainen? Trading him at the deadline would make sense because but if they are serious about not wanting to go through a full rebuild then trading away a 27 year old right-hand defenseman that the general manager doesn’t want to give up on is probably not in the cards. However, the last thing the Flyers need is a move similar to Andrew MacDonald, where you sign someone long term to the chagrin of most of the fanbase.
If there was a bidding war for him on draft day and if the price kept increasing by the bidder, then finding a contender or a suitor at the deadline shouldn’t be difficult. If there’s one position most teams are trying to solidify come playoff time it’s defensemen. On top of the fact that he’s a big physical unit who still possess the offensive game that he once harnessed in Buffalo makes him an attractive piece. Add in the right hand shot and the Flyers possibly retaining salary to get better assets, makes this a slam dunk.
Fletcher’s words have echoed since the press conference a few weeks ago when he said:
“We need more top-end talent. I also think we some bigger, more competitive people, too. You look at that game last night, the Islanders are a big, heavy team, and we had our hands full. So we need to do a better job in competing in that area as we go forward and Ristolainen can certainly be part of a six-man defense core and bring element that not a lot of people have.”
“The goal when we traded for him was to keep him. And obviously he’s a pending UFA, he will control a lot of that discussion and we’ll work with his representation to see what makes sense.”
“Well, when we traded for him – look, clearly I paid a big price, I recognize that. It’s difficult to get physical defensemen, never mind physical, right-shot defensemen. There were other teams that were offering similar type of packages to ours and we had the highest pick, so we got him. And I recognize we paid a big price.”
Fletcher is aware of what he did, how much he paid, and what the consequences are, however will that stop him from potentially overpaying again? Mike Yeo loves him, his teammates love him, the fan base gets rowdy with his physical game, it’s a slam dunk decision if the Flyers weren’t struggling and therein lies the biggest issue.
“I think we had high expectations like you should and things didn’t go like we planned. But we still can’t feel sorry about ourselves, we’ve still got to work and push. Hopefully we get some guys back from injuries soon and then we put some wins together.”
Expectations were high for everyone and from everyone and it suddenly fell apart in November. Injuries and COVID played their hand but the Flyers weren’t playing good hockey to begin with so those excuses don’t have much affect at the end of the day. He has been part of losing teams his entire career and I’m sure this isn’t what he expected. With the future of the Flyers being murky moving forward, it will be interesting to see if he would even consider taking part of the treacherous journey.
Money and term will talk and be a vital reason as to why he would return. Flyers overpaid to extend Kevin Hayes once they traded for his negotiating rights. It’s a tough pill to swallow because his contract was lengthy (7 years) and far too expensive ($7.14 million), however they wanted and needed a second line centre and they did all they could to retain his services. The same could follow for Ristolainen. He will be wanted by a lot of teams and if he hits the open market, someone will be bold enough to pay him the money he wants and give him the term that would make his new contract not so pleasurable in the future. If Fletcher out-bid for services once, does he try to double down and do it again?
He won’t sign for cheap and he most likely won’t sign for short term either. Ristolainen is coming off a 6 year deal that he signed with Buffalo that paid him a $5.4 million AAV. With how crazy the market can be, especially with right-hand shot defensemen and desperate teams, his value, term, and cap hit could very well exceed what he’s currently costing the Flyers. It wouldn’t be all too surprising if he signs upwards of $6 million, or at the very least more than his 5.4. Should the Flyers be making that sort of gamble with heavy contracts still on the books like Kevin Hayes, James van Riemsdyk, and Ryan Ellis. Not to mention the extensions of Sean Couturier and Joel Farabee kicking in next season
Ristolainen hasn’t shown his cards and there’s no reason to at all. If they already haven’t happened, conversations will be had aplenty from now to the trade deadline. I’m sure as the date approaches, we’ll either see a trade or a contract extension. Plenty of teams would be interested and there’s a good chance they can recoup the lost assets in a trade. A late first rounder could act as an early second round pick; a pick that was traded to Buffalo for his services in June. Martin Jones, Keith Yandle, Derrick Brassard, and Justin Braun are other names to keep an eye on come trade deadline. All veterans, all expiring contracts, and outside of Braun – probably not returning next season, retool or rebuild.
Braun poses as an interesting piece as well because of his right-hand shot, ability to play all throughout the lineup, and his veteran savvy. If Douglas Murray can be traded for 2 second round picks, I’m sure Braun can be had for a similar deal, he’s in and around the same age as Murray was at the time of the deal and Braun is more serviceable. Let’s also not forget that the Flyers gave up a second and third round pick for Braun in 2019. His game hasn’t diminished, he’s well liked by his teammates, and he’s well respected around the league.
Trading away the other expiring contracts and recouping assets from those deals, could make a Ristolainen extension that much more savoury for Fletcher. Keeping his “prized” defenseman and getting futures through other domains, is something to look out for as well. A re-tool would favour his chances of returning and Fletcher seems very keen on bringing him back. Just like Giroux, the decision fully lies in the hands of the player and it’ll be interesting to see how he values this season and the future of the franchise moving forward.
