It’s not supposed to be a flashy summer in Philadelphia, but the Flyers do have 3 key RFAs in need of a new contract and according to recent reports, it’s likely that Noah Cates is heading to arbitration.
Daily Faceoff’s Anthony Di Marco touched on the topic earlier in the season that Cates was more than likely willing to bet on himself heading into 2025-26 and was going to aim for a one-year deal rather than a long-term approach.
With the salary cap exponentially rising over the next 3 seasons, a lot of players are going to try and maximize their chances, especially after the stagnant cap era.
Di Marco touched on the topic again recently and mentioned that the Flyers value Cates at around $3.5 million per season on a long-term deal, which doesn’t align with his camp.
”According to a team source, Cates is said to not be interested in a long term deal at this time and is planning to bet on himself on a one year contract that would be awarded via arbitration. With the salary cap set to skyrocket over the next several seasons to well north of $100 million, the two sides don’t seem to be in lockstep with what the player’s value is on a long term deal. According to the source, the team views Cates’ value in the $3.5 million AAV range on a four- to six-year contract.”
Di Marco continued, “Checking in with the player’s camp, staying long term with the Flyers may not be good for Cates if the two sides can’t find common ground on a contract value. This is not to say the player wants out or that there is any animosity between the two sides, but there is a clear gap in perception of what a fair long-term contract should look like. A one-year deal would walk Cates to unrestricted free agency in 2026; if Cates builds off this past season and takes another step, he could look for a relatively big pay day as a UFA.”
If Cates does sign a one-year deal, that allows him to walk into unrestricted free agency the following year and get a bigger pay day – potentially elsewhere – as long as he continues on his current trajectory.
The salary cap is going from $88.5 million to $113.5 million by the 2026-27 season. It’s jumping up $7-8 million per season and because of that, a lot of players are going to be signing more lucrative deals than in previous years. Market value is going to dictate the next batch of contracts and that includes Cates.
If the Flyers are offering $3.5 million across 4-6 years, it’s understandable why Cates’ camp is willing to bet on a one-year deal. His role has expanded over the last 2 seasons and he’s become one of their most reliable forwards in short order.
If he continue to improve and gets closer to the 50-point range next season, contending clubs could be willing to spend a lot more in the summer of 2026.
However, it might not be the worst thing if Flyers don’t budge and move towards arbitration on a one-year deal. The last thing they need is to hemorrhage their books with more long-term deals, despite $3.5-4 million not being overly expensive or difficult to trade.
As Di Marco mentions, the Flyers have Jett Luchanko coming through the pipeline in short order and Cates projects to be a third-line centre on a playoff team, so signing him to a long-term deal might not be in the best interest of the team, unless it comes at their price point.
“I do think the player would be willing to commit to the Flyers long term, but it would come at a price tag higher than the team is comfortable with at this time. Speaking with executives across the league, it is getting tougher to get contracts done with the rising salary cap. Agents keep alluding to the rising ceiling as a reason to lock players up long term right now with heftier than usual AAVs, but as one team executive said to me, “Not everyone is going to get paid.”
The Flyers could also peruse the trade market this summer for a centre as they continue to look for top-6 help. Adding a Marco Rossi for example would keep Cates pinned to a third-line role, making a long-term deal at a higher price point more risky and slightly unnecessary.
Add in that they are more than likely adding a top flight centre during the 2025 NHL Entry Draft and there could be a little bit of a log-jam in the next 2-3 years.
The Flyers would love to have Cates locked down for the foreseeable future based on what he brings to the table, however that seems unlikely based on the new report. At the very least there doesn’t seem to be any animosity between both parties, it’s just likely that Cates wants a higher AAV if he’s to commit long-term today.
It’s going to be an interesting summer with Cam York and Tyson Foerster also in need of new deals, the Flyers having 7 picks in the first two rounds of the draft, and Daniel Brière looking to fill in some positional needs either through trades, free agency, or offer sheets.
Either way, it’s never a dull moment in Philadelphia as we continue to monitor the situation.
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