It’s been about a week since Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman took to his ‘Saturday Headlines’ segment during the second intermission of Hockey Night in Canada, where he mentioned that the Philadelphia Flyers were willing to engage in contract negotiations with pending unrestricted free agent forward Christian Dvorak beyond this season.
Shortly thereafter, there were rumours that the Flyers and Dvorak would be interested in a contract termed out to either 2 or 3 years with a cap hit at around $5-5.5 million, which is eerily similar to what he’s making right now on just a one-year deal, at least according to David Pagnotta of The Fourth Period.
Since then, a comparable forward has signed a 3-year extension that could set the market for what Dvorak could receive from the Flyers. San Jose Sharks forward Alexander Wennberg recently agreed to a 3-year extension worth $6 million per season.
It was a bit higher than what most were anticipating, but the 31-year-old centre has played a pivotal role in the Sharks’ top-6 this year, and has been rewarded with 7 goals and 26 points in 41 games; playing an eerily similar role and having similar production as Dvorak.
When the Flyers signed Dvorak this summer to a one-year deal worth $5.4 million, many scoffed at the cap hit, while not realizing that Dvorak wanted a prove-it-deal over term – as the Vancouver Canucks were offering him a 3-year deal – and the Flyers had cap space to burn on a contract they could have theoretically used to flip at the trade deadline for future assets.
Dvorak also had a prior relationship with newly implemented head coach Rick Tocchet and the idea of joining the Flyers on a one-year deal with a higher AAV was a win for the former second round pick. The Flyers were also desperately searching for a centre, and with the market being as thin as it was, it didn’t leave them with too many options,
As we have now entered the New Year, the Flyers are sitting in a playoff spot with a 21-12-7 record, and Dvorak has played a very integral role. While Trevor Zegras has been their most consistent offensive player all season and Travis Konecny has picked up the pace in recent weeks, Dvorak has always been a fixture, usually sitting in the top-3 to 5 of the team’s leaderboard.
He is just one goal (9) shy of being the Flyers’ 7th-forward with double digit tallies, looking to join the likes of Zegras (15), Konecny (13), Owen Tippett (13), Bobby Brink (11), Tyson Foerster (10), and Noah Cates (10). Additionally, his 16 assists have him fourth behind Zegras, (24), Konecny (23), and Sean Couturier (18), and his 25 points are good for third-best behind just Zegras (39) and Konecny (36) while being tied with Tippett.
That’s fairly good value for an unrestricted free agent signing.
So with that being said, the earliest anyone who signed a one-year contract can begin negotiating a new deal is January 1st, and it’s not surprising that we’re hearing through the grapevine that the Flyers are looking into getting something done as soon as possible.
Friedman said that rival general managers would be surprised if Dvorak doesn’t stay in Philadelphia and Pagnotta alluded to the idea of both sides should be coming to an agreement in the neighbourhood of $5.5 million over 2-3 years. Add in Wennberg’s extension and the Flyers should have a good ballpark estimate into what it should realistically cost.
The Flyers currently have just under $47 million in projected cap space for the summer of 2026 with key pending RFAs in Brink, Zegras, Emil Andrae, Jamie Drysdale, Samuel Ersson, Nikita Grebenkin. Additionally Dvorak, Nicolas Deslauriers, Carl Grundström, and Noah Juulsen are set to be UFAs.
On the UFA side of things, Dvorak should be a shoo-in with Grundström potentially being brought back after a solid start to his campaign on the team’s fourth line. Even if they ended up signing most of the aforementioned names, including the lengthy RFA list, they’ll still have plenty of money leftover, and the cap is projected to increase from $104 million to $113.5 million the following year, giving them even more room.
With the way the salary cap is increasing, Dvorak’s $5.5 million is essentially market value, when you also consider teams are coveting centres and there aren’t many good options available. What could also be of convenience is that if the Flyers wanted to move his contract a year or two down the road, they wouldn’t have too many obstacles to clear, since $5.5 million isn’t overly steep – unless you’re forever cap strapped like Edmonton or Toronto.
However, if $5 million-$5.5 million is now going to be too low, the Flyers are going to be stuck between a rock and a hard place, because Dvorak might hold more of the leverage. He has a direct comparable in Wennberg when it comes to production, Dvorak is 2 years younger, and has proven to work within Tocchet’s system this year as an all-situation player – as well as meshing with Zegras.
Additionally, the top centres that could be available on July 1st include Kevin Hayes, Anders Lee, Nick Schmaltz, Charlie Coyle, Jean-Gabriel Pageau, Jason Dickinson, and Erik Haula, among others. Schmaltz might be the pick of the litter, but are any of them that much more of an improvement over Dvorak?
Now, while the good outweighs the bad by a solid amount, re-signing Dvorak in this climate also means that the Flyers don’t have anyone ready to make the jump from the minors or juniors. Their pipeline is barren of top flight centres, and the ones they have drafted are either not developing at the rate they had hoped, or are still too raw/young.
Dvorak will be turning 30 in February, so he’s not an old man, but it’s definitely concerning that he would be classified as one of the best centre options on the team – from the NHL roster all the way down to the pipeline. Jett Luchanko in particular hasn’t overly impressed and this bit of news coming out during the World Junior Championship, so it might be a good indicator of where they stand right now.
Nevertheless, that shouldn’t take away from the good the Flyers have received from Dvorak. The Illinois native is 9 goals and 13 points away from tying his career-high of 18 and 38, respectively, that he notched in 2019-20 as a member of the Tocchet-led Arizona Coyotes.
It’s been a bit of an inconsistent run for the former London Knight, who dazzled alongside linemates Matthew Tkachuk and Mitch Marner. Dvorak scored 41 goals and 109 points in 66 games in 2014-15, before finishing off in style with 52 goals and 121 points in 59 regular season games, and an additional 14 goals and 35 points in 18 playoff games en route to a championship.
In 5 years with the Coyotes, Dvorak scored 67 goals and 146 points in 302 games with an ATOI of 16:31, before scoring 38 goals and 103 points in 232 games across 4 seasons with Montréal. He’s been a steady middle-6 forward for most of his career, which could be a cause for concern when offering him a multi-year deal in the midst of a rebuild. However, he hasn’t missed a beat in Philadelphia, and it’s certainly worth another look.
As long as the deal comes without trade protections, the Flyers will be able to manage the cap hit and multi-year term, all the while not blocking any of their key prospects from truly flourishing. Nevertheless, anything above $6 million should have Daniel Brière and company thinking twice.
They have bigger fish to fry in the coming seasons with players like Drysdale and Zegras needing new deals this summer and Matvei Michkov the following year. They also have an abundance of wingers who need a reliable, trustworthy centre, and Dvorak has proven he can be just that with how he’s done alongside Zegras this year.
It won’t be the most prolific move and it definitely won’t be approved by all, but Dvorak is the best of a bad situation right now in Philadelphia. Considering how difficult it is to acquire centres and who could be available on July 1st, it makes sense why they’re approaching it as soon as possible, however, if it will be a tad bit concerning if his asking price exceeds that of Wennberg.
