The Analytics and Eye Test: 2026-2027 Philadelphia Flyers Games 1-10

The Philadelphia Flyers (1-6-3) finally won. They defeated the Ottawa Senators, 3-1, at home on Saturday.

These first ten games of the 2026-2027 NHL Regular Season resembled the worst start in franchise history. How does that look by the numbers? Does it match the eye test?

Ten games is a large enough sample size to understand the Flyers’ current issues. The numbers (told by William O’Brien), at the surface and under the hood, provide chartable evidence. Do they match the eye test (told by Eric Reese)? Here’s what’s happening in Philadelphia:

Surface Level Stats

The Numbers

It doesn’t take a rocket scientist to know the Flyers would sit near the bottom of the league and division.

As for the power play, anyone who watched the Flyers over the last several years isn’t surprised. The penalty kill is among the top ten in the NHL, the one team strength. Last season, Philadelphia did well on the penalty kill early on.

Teams coached by Rick Tocchet don’t experience a high volume of shots on goal. What about shots against? Shot suppression was the Flyers’ calling card last season. Now, they’re hardly doing that. We’re watching the defensive system collapse in the first ten games of this season, meaning a couple of things:

1. The Flyers routinely fail to slow down or kill the opposing transition in the neutral zone.
2. The Flyers’ defensive structure is leaking.

The Eye Test

En route to a 1-6-3 start, there were games when Philadelphia looked flatter than a day old opened soda. No, I don’t buy any of the excuses about a short offseason. In fact, Tocchet said something before the season started that jumped out like a red flag. After he was asked if he gets the sense that the Flyers aren’t complacent and if there’s anything from training camp or practice providing evidence:

“No. Not from practices. [The] exhibition games; a little bit [in] the last two games. I get it, it’s been a long summer. We got to tighten up, and we got to score some goals. I felt some of the guys were playing a little [too much on the] perimeter. We took the easy way out [in] those two games. If you want to score goals, you can’t do what we did. We had some chances, don’t get me wrong. It’s going to be hard to score goals, and you have to get to these certain areas.” – Rick Tocchet; 9/29/2026

This was followed by a home opener where the Pittsburgh Penguins visited, beat up, and left Philadelphia with a 7-0 shutout win. That followed with three other uninspiring outings during the first ten-games against the Tampa Bay Lightning, Boston Bruins, and Carolina Hurricanes, where the Flyers scored once while losing by a three-goal deficit. Most games have been determined by one goal, however. That accounts for three losses in an overtime or shootout to the Hurricanes, New Jersey Devils, and Seattle Kraken. Adding to the frustration, there were close regulation losses to the Senators and Detroit Red Wings.

Matvei Michkov and Porter Martone are the constants when Philadelphia contributes on the power play. The Flyers have three total power play goals, two which belong to Michkov and the other to Martone. If you’re looking for goal scoring or a spark with the man-advantage, call on the M&M Guys.

It’s not too surprising to see that the penalty kill is doing well. Credit Dan Vladař and Joseph Woll for making timely saves, but there’s still role players who need to step up in other areas, but maintain their slot on the penalty kill: such as Noah Cates for example.

The numbers tell a lot of truth, and when Philadelphia finally earned their first win, it was against the only team they’ve outshot, which is much more concerning for Ottawa because the Flyers, in their current scene, has outshot the Senators twice in the first ten games of 2026-2027.

Rates Per 60

Analytics shouldn’t be used as standalone evidence of how successful a team is. They’re a tool used to understand the full picture beyond the limitations of the box score or stat sheet.

Looking at the macro metric rates per 60 isolates efficiency to provide a true view of how a team or players produces across regulation time.

See here for a Glossary on metrics referenced below.

Play Driving Metrics (Under the Hood)

The Numbers

The offense was always bad. Now, under Tocchet, the defense isn’t picking up the weight.

Last season, the Flyers still had major problems scoring goals across all situations. At even-strength, they were 25th in the league with 2.33xGF/60. Philadelphia relied on high-danger scoring chances, which is the same strategy.

This season, the Flyers aren’t generating much offense in any stretch, and it’s worse than the problematic offense from 2025-2026. The power play is almost twice as bad, operating at half the efficiency. The high-danger chances are buried further in the basement, trending right along the shots on goal.

The biggest issue is away from the puck. When an offense is unable to create any plays, it puts a ton of pressure on the defense. Last season, Philadelphia was aggravating. Clogging shooting lanes and passing lanes to suppress the amount of pucks the goaltender needs to stop was the bread and butter. A lot of offense was generated due to defense, too.

Now, not so much. The Flyers aren’t shooting, they aren’t suppressing shots, and opponents are finding the high-danger areas on Philadelphia at a higher rate.

The Eye Test

There was a period of time where the goals being scored involved a bit of puck luck. When you’re mostly scoring one goal per game and it takes a deflection, that’s not good offense. It’s more flukey than sustainable. Tyson Foerster bounced a puck off Charle-Edouard D’Astous to score on Andrei Vasilevskiy and Christian Dvorak deflected a puck past Pyotr Kochetkov. If not for those goals, there would’ve been a four-game span without an even-strength goal, meaning the power play would’ve been the only working attack.

But, if there was supposed to be something that should’ve held up, it would be the defense at even-strength, right? The Flyers can’t expect to win often if they’re not pulling their weight away from the puck while they struggle with it. Let’s not be too dense about it, either. The defense has been banged up for a bit longer than the forwards.

Simon Benoit, David Jiříček, and Oliver Bonk are mainstays on the defensive unit instead of rotating pieces because Cam York and Rasmus Ristolainen are out of the lineup. Bonk was recalled into top pairing minutes with Travis Sanheim while Benoit and Jiříček are paired together, which is a defensive liability. It’s a very unsettled defensive unit, mostly over-exposed and under developed as a matter of circumstance.

Foerster, Sean Couturier, Owen Tippett, and Travis Konecny are all out or game-time decisions, too. Earlier, Daniel Brière made the call to the Lehigh Valley Phantoms to put Hunter McDonald, Alex Bump, Cole Knuble, and Jacob Gaucher on Philadelphia’s roster.

Player health presents more context as to why the Flyers are out to a rough start, but doesn’t excuse the uninspiring tilts making up for nearly half of the losses through the first ten games.

Goaltending

The Numbers

2026-2027

2025-2026

Despite how the national media spins it, both goaltenders have been good.

Woll has been excellent in Philadelphia, and it’s a shame the team in front of him has not helped him secure a win. This season, Woll secured the first points toward the NHL Standings in an overtime loss. He’s winless in five starts; a victim to a lack of scoring support. The Flyers are bleeding high-danger chances, and Woll has stopped just about everything you hoped he would, and then some.

Vladař is a bit more complicated. Stats can be misleading, and his are about as misleading as it gets. The shortened preseason is something that didn’t help Vladař because he played 13:31TOI. Vladař missed time after Tanner Jeannot made contact with him in the crease during the 2026 NHL Preseason. Let’s take a look at his numbers if you throw out that disgusting home opening shutout loss to Pittsburgh:

It’s a lot better. If we’re praising Woll, the flowers should smell as good for Vladař. Philadelphia started Woll consecutively after the loss to the Penguins, and it bought time for Vladař to gain more repetititions.

Furthermore, Vladař captured the first win of 2026-2027 for the Flyers. Goaltending isn’t an issue.

The Eye Test

Without a doubt, Vladař and Woll are the backbone in Philadelphia.

As soon as the lineup can latch onto some chemistry and be aware of poor line changes, the Flyers will likely be on the right side of some of these closer games. Of all the losses, most were by one goal. The main problem areas for Philadelphia comes down to aggressively missing the pinch and giving up odd-man rushes, poor line changes, and getting scored on immediately after losing the defensive zone faceoff. That’s all before considering the gamebreakers on the ice, like Nathan MacKinnon tonight.

Can The Flyers Fix It?

It’s hard to sell to anyone that the Flyers will fix this. In short, they could correct the path. We can look at last season and see that if the execution is there on defense, even with a suboptimal offense, things should improve from this historically awful start.

A fix is really a return to status quo. It’s not an improvement. Philadelphia likely doesn’t remain in the basement defensively when it comes to those play driving metrics. If the defense gets out of the muck, so will the offense because less time defending means more time with the puck.

Who Will Right The Ship?

This is on the organization.

Whether it’s the players executing, the coach getting the players to ‘buy-in,’ a trade, or a coaching change, the organization dictates if the course will be corrected. The crowd at Xfinity Mobile Arena booed Tocchet when he appeared on the jumbotron, but there’s no intention of letting go of Tocchet.

For those who wanted Tocchet out of Philadelphia, the bad news is the win on Saturday might’ve extended the leash. If they continue to lose the way they have, by the boatload, that hotseat should catch fire. ‘Ignite The Orange,’ even.

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